Author: FFP Ai Bot

WASHINGTON- The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and most economists and Wall Street traders expect it to leave interest rates where they are for now, while keeping the door open to another increase in December.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet Oct. 27-28. According to the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar, the policy statement will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, Oct. 28, followed by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.

Where rates stand now

The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate sits at a target range of 3.75% to 4%. The committee voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to raise it by a quarter of a percentage point, its first increase since 2023. In that statement, the Fed said “Inflation remains elevated” and that “The Committee will deliver price stability.”

Minutes of that September meeting, released Oct. 7, show that “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.” Officials also said they approach each meeting “with an open mind.”

What is expected Wednesday: a hold

Most economists and Wall Street analysts expect the Fed to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, CBS News reported Monday.

Traders agree. As of Monday afternoon, CME Group's FedWatch tool, which is based on fed funds futures prices, showed about an 88% probability the Fed holds rates steady this week, according to CBS News. Earlier Monday, FedWatch put the odds of a hold at 90.6% and the odds of a quarter-point increase at 9.4%, according to Unchained, as reported on Yahoo Finance. CNBC reported futures were pricing less than a 10% chance of an increase this week.

The bigger question for markets is December. CBS News reported FedWatch showed about a 71% probability of a rate increase at the Fed's Dec. 8-9 meeting, and CNBC reported that nearly 75% of the futures market expects at least one more increase by the end of the year. There is no Fed meeting in November.

These are market probabilities, not guarantees. They can change quickly with new data, including the government's GDP and PCE inflation reports due Thursday, Oct. 29.

Why the Fed is worried about inflation

Consumer prices rose at a 3.7% annual rate in September as energy costs jumped, according to CBS News, well above the Fed's 2% goal. Gasoline prices have hovered above $4 a gallon nationally for three months and accounted for more than half of September's increase in consumer prices, according to the Labor Department figures cited by CBS.

The meeting also comes days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

What it means for Fostoria-area households

A hold on Wednesday would not lower anyone's payments, but it would not raise them either. Here is how the Fed's rate reaches local wallets, based on national figures reported by CNBC:

• Credit cards: Most cards carry variable rates that move with the Fed's benchmark. If the Fed holds, card rates are likely to stay near current levels. The average rate on a new credit card offer is 23.96%, according to LendingTree.
• Home equity lines and other short-term loans: These track the prime rate, which typically runs about 3 percentage points above the federal funds rate.
• Mortgages: Mortgage rates follow longer-term Treasury yields more than the Fed's rate. With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage has been close to 7.4%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
• Car loans: Auto rates are influenced by the Fed's rate and remain elevated, and many buyers are taking larger, longer loans, according to Edmunds.
• Savings: Savers continue to earn relatively attractive yields on high-yield savings accounts and similar products while rates stay high.

Farm country is also on the Fed's radar. In the September minutes, “a couple of participants observed that conditions in that sector, especially the crop sector, had been strained because of worsening drought and higher prices for diesel and other inputs.” The minutes also noted that low- and moderate-income households “faced strains, with higher energy prices weighing disproportionately on their real disposable income.”

Could the Fed be a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin?

Fed decisions move markets, and Bitcoin often reacts quickly to them. Higher rates and tighter policy can put pressure on riskier assets such as crypto, while a softer-than-expected message from the Fed could give them a lift. With a hold widely expected, traders say the key for Bitcoin this week is likely what Warsh signals about December, not Wednesday's decision itself.

Bitcoin was trading near $79,800 late Monday night, around 11:40 p.m. Eastern, according to CoinGecko. Earlier Monday, CoinDesk reported Bitcoin fell nearly 2% to about $79,800 “as traders reduced risk” ahead of the Fed meeting. “While the Fed probably won't change rates this week, we're watching how strongly the chair hints at a December hike – that's what matters for crypto,” Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk. Investors also pulled $772.4 million from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last Thursday and Friday, Bloomberg reported.

The last Fed decision shows how unpredictable the reaction can be. When the Fed raised rates Sept. 16, Bitcoin swung back and forth but was little changed right after the announcement, at about $75,700, according to CoinDesk. By the next morning it was up 0.88% over 24 hours to $76,621, as traders focused on Fed projections that implied only one more increase, CoinDesk reported. A Bitget analyst told The Block that Bitcoin had moved roughly four times as much as the S&P 500 on the previous two Fed decision days.

The Fostoria Free Press is not predicting where Bitcoin's price will go. Crypto prices are highly volatile and can move sharply for reasons that have nothing to do with the Fed. This article is for general information only and is not investment advice.

What happens next

The Fed's decision and statement will be posted at 2 p.m. Wednesday on the Federal Reserve's website, with the press conference at 2:30 p.m. The Fostoria Free Press will update readers after the announcement.

Sources:
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Federal Reserve October 2026 calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm
FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
FOMC minutes, Sept. 15-16, 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm
CBS News, Oct. 26, 2026: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-interest-rates-october-meeting/
CNBC, Oct. 26, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/fed-decision-expectations-october-meeting.html
Unchained via Yahoo Finance, Oct. 26, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-briefly-dips-below-80-094638200.html
CoinDesk, Oct. 26, 2026: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/26/bitcoin-slips-under-usd80-000-as-traders-de-risk-ahead-of-fed-meeting
Bloomberg via The Hindu BusinessLine, Oct. 26, 2026: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-dips-below-80000-as-ai-related-market-selloff-deepens/article71625844.ece
CoinDesk, Sept. 16, 2026: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/16/fed-raises-rates-by-25-basis-points-in-first-hike-since-july-2023
CoinDesk, Sept. 17, 2026: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/17/crypto-rallies-through-the-fed-s-first-rate-increase-since-2023
The Block, Sept. 16, 2026: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-16-bitcoin-ether-swing-unanimous-quarter-point-fed-rate-hike-warsh-aim-inflation-415307
CoinGecko BTC price API (Oct. 26, 2026, 11:39 p.m. ET): https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin